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As the New Year approaches the typical topic of discussion is to prognosticate, predict, and further espouse a view of what the future will bring. Our view is not a pretty view, well, certainly not in the short-term, but a view that becomes somewhat less gloomy as the year 2008 progresses. In the first quarter of 2008, we will continue to feel the pangs of pain from the fall out of the sub-prime mess. This will cause banks and other lending bodies to, finally, become conservative on their lending practices. Then, as a first quarter gift, we will begin to see some of the lending excesses, in the form of "Exotic Mortgages," begin to fail. While this event will likely only be felt in the wealthy sectors of the economy, it will nonetheless, curtail spending and further pressure home prices. The FOMC will continue to lower rates, but this will not help loosen the new tight lending practices, just learned. Many lenders have been stung by the mortgage-bee and, will be less likely to lend that aggressively again. This will slow down the consumer spending habits. A further effect of lowering interest rates, is to encourage inflation, which is already percolating at a boil. The US Dollar index will feel this pressure, and may take another leg, to the downside, destabilizing further, its reserve status. Commodities will continue to rally, gold will rally and crude oil will surpass the $100.00 mark, pushing beyond the century mark before retreating. The Chinese will enjoy the Olympic boom after which, its aggressive growth will moderate. We look to Japan, Korea, India, Turkey and Russia for growth in the year ahead. We would be long resources and short consumer extravagances. This gloomy forecast will last for, at the very least, the first quarter, and possibly the second quarter, but will lead to a rally for the summer and into the election season. Thus, the year will close just marginally above where it opened 2008 with an election campaign flooding hopes for fairy dust to get us out of our messes. The result will be to throw the bums out and "tax the rich." We do not agree with this, however; that will be the mantra. We are capitalists at heart, and do not believe in punishing those who have been successful. The bottom line is: where do you put money to work. Obviously, with interest rates very low, another home for free cash is needed. We encourage you to look into preferred issues of stable companies for an increase in cash flow. Further, convertible preferred and convertible bonds on good stocks are a good source of cash-flow, with an equity kicker. Also, remember that there is cap on the taxes you pay on dividends, well, so far there is.... that cap is at 15%. Dividends have the preference, not bond coupons, which are taxed as ordinary income. Naturally, this investment strategy is good for a declining interest rate environment and needs to be adjusted when that strategy changes. We continue to like gold, but will avoid industrial metals. We like commodities because even in a recession, "Man has to eat and heat." Monday: the last day of the year 2007 and the last day to take losses for the tax year, November existing home sales, and November semiconductor book-to-bill is released. Tuesday: HAPPY NEW YEAR! Wednesday: December ISM is released at 10:00, November construction spending is released at 10:00 and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting are released at 2:00. Thursday: Challenger, Gray & Christmas issue December's job-cuts and November factory orders are released at 10:00. Friday: December's nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate are released at 8:30 and Fed Vice Chairman Kohn speaks. Tags: Commodities, economy, Exotic Mortgages, Forex, gold, home prices, India, Japan, Korea, market, market analysis, orders, Russia, Turkey

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Posted under Forex, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, Turkey, market

click on the chart to enlarge An early warning signal that the uptrend in coffee is losing steam and may be about to end would be if these two moving averages produced a bearish line crossover signal, whereby the 9-day crossed back below the 18-day moving average. See the solid technical support and resistance levels on the chart. Stay tuned! Tags: chart, coffee futures, daily bar chart, Forex, Futures, signal, technical, technical momentum, term moving averages

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Posted under Forex, Futures, technical

Abertura de capital da BM&F pode levar à fusão com Bovespa, diz jornal O texto afirma que mercados financeiros no mundo inteiro estão passando por fusões, e que a América Latina é uma "nova fronteira" para este processo. "Combinar as duas bolsas criaria um monopólio no acelerado mercado brasileiro, e possibilitaria o aproveitamento de recursos através da fusão das plataformas de negociação", diz o WSJ. A oferta inicial de ações da 4ª maior bolsa do mercadorias de mundo, prevista para sexta-feira, é de quase R$ 6,5 bilhões, pouco menos que os R$ 6,6 bilhões levantados pela Bovespa em outubro. Segundo o The Wall Street Journal, as ações da BM&F já começaram a trocar de mãos antes mesmo do IPO. O artigo diz que o fundo de investimento General Atlantic LLC teria comprado em novembro cerca de 10% do capital da BM&F pagando pouco mais de R$ 800 milhões, de olho no enorme potencial de lucro que o negócio pode gerar com o esperado sucesso do IPO. O IPO da BM&F deve caracterizar o que o jornal britânico Financial Times chama de "mais um sinal do grande interesse dos investidores pelo Brasil". Segundo o FT, espera-se que as operações na BM&F "se expandam rapidamente se, como analistas prevêem, o Brasil receber recomendação de investimento (de agências de risco) no ano que vem". Tags: América Latina, BM&F, financeiros, Forex, Forex scalping, fully automated, fundo, IPO, plataformas

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If the US Government is to bail-out various financial institutions including insurance companies, buying their toxic assets, as part of the package; a dramatic pay-cut for all executives needs to be part of that package. If your money, the US government funds, are being used to buy- and steady these firms, we all become equity holders in the assets that being purchased. Thus, when these assets are sold, if they ever will be sold, they will bring a profit/loss to our government's balance sheets. The seven figure pay packages and golden parachutes, of many of these financial companies, needs to go the way of the "Dodo Bird." If these executives were stupid enough to have allowed this sort of mess to occur, they too need to pay the price of failure. As to the government's agreement to insure money market funds, it is a good idea and will help protect the little investor from total devastation on failures in short-term unsecured debt like that of Lehman Bros. When we enter into a really awful trade, we loose. We remember Refco, a really awful purchase which is near worthless today. Did Uncle Sam bail us out of that mess? No! The economy has lost more than 600,000 jobs; shouldn't a lot of the job losses come from that upper management that was a part of this toxic mess? Yes, but do they.....no, they don't. Who is going to bail out GM and Ford? Uncle Sam to the rescue? We have seen this tsunami coming for several years. Here is a question: we are not the brightest, or the best in the world, if we could see the mortgage mess coming, why couldn't the alleged bright guys and gals get a handle on it? Was it purely greed that motivated their action? What happened to the conservative bankers....ah yes, the Dodo bird! Back to the market which, is where we have our expertise. The chart tells us that there is more room to the upside, but that as we rally we quickly enter into an area of resistance on the chart. That resistance broad area is at 1300. We are not overbought and continue to trade at just the positive side of neutral which tells us, that there is more room to the upside. Is this the all-clear for the market? NO it is not. There are other messes looming out there. As to our growing unemployment rate, we should take some of this "free" government money and use it fix this countries bridges, tunnels, and roads and by doing so, employ our citizens to do the work. The citizens will make money and perhaps, be able to pay-down some of their looming debt. As to last week's actions in the market, not only were we spooked by the news, but we also endured quadruple witch expiration. These actions in concert were what exaggerated the action of the market. On Friday, many of the traders were so used up that they simply didn't want to trade and refused to make markets. Tuesday: Testimony from Chairman Bernanke, Sec's Cox and Secretary Paulson all before the Senate banking committee. Wednesday: Chairman Bernanke testifies before Joint Economic Committee, and August existing home sales are released at 10:00. Thursday: Chairman Bernanke and Secretary Paulson on the "Hill." August durable goods are released at 8:30, August new home sales are released at 10:00, and Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks. The US Dollar index retreated in the Friday session, but continues to remain above the uptrend line at 77.40. So long as the market remains above 77.31 on a closing basis, the uptrend will continue. Remember, many times we dip below the line perhaps for a day and then rally again to close above the line. This isn't an unusual occurrence. The Stochastic indicator continues to issue a sell-signal. The RSI is going sideways, our own indicator is curling to the upside and will issue a buy-signal within a day or so and the Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is oversold and going sideways. The 5-day moving average is at 78.583. The top of the Bollinger band is at 80.729 and the lower edge is seen at 76.706. Should the market close above 79.38, the shorts or sideline money will jump into this market and could propel it higher. We remain above the Ichimuko clouds for both the daily and the weekly time-frames but below the clouds for the monthly time-frame. The weekly chart shows a 9-count. The sell-set up is done. All the indicators that we follow are uniformly issuing a sell-signal on the weekly time-frame. We continue to believe that we will see some more backing and filling for the US Dollar index. So far, we remain constructive however; that could quickly change. The Euro is above the uptrend line of 142.00 and seems to be following that line higher. All the indicators that we follow herein are overbought and all are pointing higher. The 5-day moving average is at 146.853. The top of the Bollinger band is at 148.29 and the lower edge is seen at 138.49. We are below the Ichimuko clouds on the daily chart but are below the clouds on the weekly chart. For the monthly time-frame, we are above the clouds. Should we really further, we will stop at 145.80 and 148.12. The chart looks okay for now but more follow thru will be needed to attract fresh funds. Houston, we are not cleared for take-off. We need to see the S&P 500 close above 1313.50 to convince us that the worst is over. The market does have more room to run on the upside and we would expect to see the market trade as high as 1307.75. We remain below the Ichimuko clouds for both the daily and weekly time-frame but above the clouds for the monthly time-frame. The spike seen in the VIX indicated that we might have seen a short-term bottom in the S&P 500. The recent two-day rally is not enough to convince us that the worst is behind. The 5-day moving average is at 1204.90. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1321.34 and the lower edge is seen at 1182.299. All the indicators that we follow herein are issuing a continued buy-signal with plenty of room to the upside. When we look at the weekly chart, we see that the only indicator pointing higher is the stochastic indicator. The other indicators continue to point lower. Both the weekly and the monthly charts show that the S&P 500 is in a downtrend. The NASDAQ 100 enjoyed a wonderful two-day rally last week. The downtrend line on the chart is at 1825.20 for the Monday session. All the indicators that we follow herein are uniformly issuing a continued buy-signal approaching neutral levels. In other words, we have plenty of room to the upside left. The 5- day moving average is at 1710.16. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1960.90 and the lower edge is seen at 1642.26. We are below the Ichimuko clouds for both the daily and the weekly time-frame but above the clouds for the monthly time-frame. The weekly downtrend line is at 1822.15. The indicators on the weekly chart are mixed with only the stochastic indicator pointing higher, for the monthly chart all the indicators are pointing lower. Although the market seems to have bottomed, for the short-term, we could see further shake-outs in the days to come so, keep your trigger finger flexed and at the ready. The Russell 2000 has a terrific looking chart. This index of small capitalization shares jumped higher last week removing the downtrend line and closing above the Ichimuko clouds. The 5-day moving average is at 726.98. The top of the Bollinger band is at 762.78 and the lower edge is seen at 688.46. All the indicators that we follow are approaching overbought levels yet continue to point higher. We will be watching this index for clues regarding any weakness in the larger capitalization indices. This index never took out the July lows and has out-performed the other indices. The only danger we see is that the rally on Friday took this index above the top Bollinger band. We did close below that upper band but we also know that we can not push that line for too long without risking a retreat. This past week's range was truly remarkable! The Continuous Commodity Index moved higher in the last three trading days of the week. So long as 451.36 holds, on a closing basis, we expect to see this market rally further. All the indicators that we follow herein are issuing a buy-signal. The 5-day moving average is at 505.97. The top of the Bollinger band is at 537.388 and the lower edge is seen at 443.51. The best news is seen on the daily chart, once you look at the weekly chart, depression sets in. We have a doji-candle on the weekly chart and a close below the lower edge of the Bollinger band. Obviously, we can't stay at these depressed levels for too long. The indicators on the weekly chart are also positive having just issued a fresh buy-signal. We are below the Ichimuko clouds for both the daily and the weekly time-frame. Should the US Dollar continue to retreat, naturally, this index will be the beneficiary of that decline. Crude oil enjoyed a rally during this time of turmoil in the market. The downtrend line is at 107.83. We remain below the Ichimuko clouds for the daily chart but above the clouds for both the weekly and the monthly time-frames. The indicators that we follow are all pointing higher. The 5-day moving average is at 97.29. The top of the Bollinger band is at 121.66 and the lower edge is seen at 91.69. Crude oil looks as though it could rally further but will have some difficulty at the 112 +/- level. Until we can see a close above 121, the bears will be in control with short and quick moves as short sellers cover their positions. Watch the US Dollar for clues as to the direction of crude. Gold really took off to the upside last week, opening the door to the old highs. Although we are overbought on a short-term basis, some of the instability of the US economy will play well for the gold-bugs. The 5-day moving average is at 832.44. The top of the Bollinger band is at 878.70 and the lower edge is seen at 740.36. We continue below the Ichimuko clouds for the daily chart and we are in the clouds on the weekly chart. Once this market trades above 873.60 it should quickly rally to the 940 area. A decline below 772.80 will bring out the gold bears and increase the selling pressure on this market. Although we are overbought and find some indicators issuing a sell-signal, we continue to look favorably on gold.

Tags: Bollinger band, chart, Continuous Commodity Index, golden, Ichimuko, indicator, investor, management, market, market trades, Moving Average, Option Queen, Options, profit/loss, US Dollar index, US government funds

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etvFutures - Commodities: Crude oil, distillates, natural gas , gold, silver, copper. O&F’s Frey with his commodities commentary. NYMEX crude oil futures surged, closing at $93.31/brl. COMEX gold settled higher at $815.40/oz. Tags: copper, Crude oil, distillates, Forex, Forex Channels, futures surged, gold, gold, natural gas, O&F’s, oil, silver

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Posted under Forex, Forex Channels, gold, oil

The Canadian dollar rose sharply against USD after the employment figures came well above forecasts. Statistics Canada reported that in the month of November Canadian economy added 43,000 jobs versus 8K which was expected by economists. The Canadian dollar gained more than 100 pips in the first minutes after the report as seen in the 5-min chart below. It stalled at the 1.0004 mark before pulling back. CAD lost some ground as both oil and gold drifted lower during the trading day, closing at 88.28 (-1.95) and at 800.200 (-6.900) respectively. There wasn’t much reaction in the USD after the US Nonfarm Payroll report which was slightly higher than expected 93K jobs added vs 75K expected. It stayed within its recent trading range against CAD and other majors. Strong US data decreased the likelyhood of a 50bp rate cut dunring its upcoming FOMC meeting on December 11th. Today’s Strategy: USD/CAD is bounded by two major levels: 1.0215 resistance and 0.9935 support. Long term charts show the overall uptrend in the pair. This week’s strategy - buying on bounce of 0.9935 with a 30 pip stop or buy on break through 1.0215 with 30 pip stop.

Tags: canadian dollar, forecast, Forex, Forex Channels, Forex strategy e-books, oil, payroll, pips, Statistics canada, strategy, Trading, USD

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click chart to enlarge The near-term bearish posture of the crude oil market, which has been a leading "outside market" for many other futures markets, is a warning shot across the bow for all raw commodity market bulls. If crude continues to break down then it's likely that other raw commodity markets will also struggle on the upside. Stay tuned! Tags: commodity markets, Forex, Forex Channels, Forex strategy e-books, indicator, MACD, market, market, Moving Average Convergence Divergence, oil, outside market, technical damage, trending

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click on the chart to enlarge The dollar index bulls are a bit encouraged that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has recently produced a bullish line crossover signal, whereby the thick blue MACD line crossed above the thin red trigger line. Both lines are also trending up. The value of the greenback against the other major currencies continues to be a major "outside" factor for many futures markets. Stay tuned!

Need help on better entry into, and exit from, markets? I have an e-book called "The Art of Effective Stop Order Placement in Trading Markets." You can buy it for only $14.95 by clicking on the "SUBSCRIBE" section of my website at www.jimwyckoff.com . If you are like many traders who feel your market entry and protective stop placement methods need improvement, then my e-book will be a valuable resource to you. I also have an e-book entitled "62 Rules Used by Profitable Futures Traders," which sells for $19.95. These are the best trading investments for under $20.00 you'll ever make! All of my educational products are designed to be easily understood and are in "plain English." Tags: currencies, daily bar chart, Forex, Forex Channels, Forex strategy e-books, Futures, market, Moving Average, near-term market, prices, Stop Order, technical trendline, traders, U.S. Dollar

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LEAD: ON A MILD, LATE-JANUARY DAY, WHILE his fellow professionals scramble toward a weekend payday on the Monterey Peninsula some 3,000 miles away, Curtis Strange is back home on the range, hard at practice. With monotonous regularity, Strange, a lanky, prematurely gray-haired 35-year-old, slaps golf ball after golf ball into the slight Virginia breeze. ON A MILD, LATE-JANUARY DAY, WHILE his fellow professionals scramble toward a weekend payday on the Monterey Peninsula some 3,000 miles away, Curtis Strange is back home on the range, hard at practice. With monotonous regularity, Strange, a lanky, prematurely gray-haired 35-year-old, slaps golf ball after golf ball into the slight Virginia breeze. First, a series of soft wedge shots that seem to hover momentarily before dropping, like darts to a board, to an imaginary flagstick some 110-115 yards away; next, short irons, which send the red-striped range balls rippling off toward a row of tall pines and the James River beyond. After 20 or 30 swings, Strange has worked himself into the mid-iron range, the shots now soaring and disappearing into the winter light, reappearing at a distance of some two football fields away, clustered on the yellowish winter turf. To an observer noting the smooth regularity of one of the world's great golf swings, Strange offers his own assessment: ''The legs don't want to work,'' he says, in a mid-Southern drawl. ''I feel kind of uncoordinated.'' If Strange - arguably the top golfer on the planet right now - doesn't feel good, he looks good. A lingering bout with the flu has left him wheezing between swings - his first in over a week - but the sparkling form is much the same as that which produced victories at the last two United States Opens and has earned him over $6 million in total purses since he joined the Professional Golfers' Association Tour in 1977: relaxed and comfortably upright address position, full-body coil, pivot, right-side release, balanced finish. The unflawed motion, calibrated through repetition, produces what is the ultimate strength to Strange's game - the unerringly straight golf shot. And apart from the occasional momentary lapse, it's pretty much this swing that has made Strange the signature pro golfer of the moment. The most memorable lapse occurred almost exactly five years ago, during the final round of the 1985 Masters Tournament. Strange, seemingly in command of the fabled layout at the tourney's annual site, the Augusta National Golf Club, in Augusta, Ga., hit two shots into the waters fronting the 13th and 15th greens. His lead evaporated directly, and by afternoon's end, the errant swings had cost him the most important championship he's never won. ''That was one of the few times I've lost when I shouldn't have,'' says Strange. ''but it happened to be at the Masters. I blew it. But I live for the day when I'll be coming down the stretch again with a chance to win there.'' Golf fates willing, Strange will have his opportunity next week, as the PGA Tour makes its annual pilgrimage to Augusta's ''Cathedral in the Pines,'' a course that offers one of the most deceptive and exacting layouts in all of golf. The fairways, lined by tall pines, are forgivingly broad and free of rough, but the sloped, undulating greens are flanked by hazards and mowed to a treacherous marble smoothness. With its demanding angles of approach, its premium on shotmaking, the course is best suited to those who hit a long, high ball - the former champion Seve Ballesteros, for example, perennial contender Greg Norman or Jack Nicklaus in his prime. Strange, whose game is not particularly long, agrees. ''There's no substitute for strength,'' he says, ''especially at Augusta. Greg or Seve don't necessarily have to be at their best to win there, whereas I'd have to be very, very good. But I really don't think there's any place in the world where I can't play well and win.'' THE MASTERS WILL BE ONLY THE SIXTH tour event of the year for Strange, whose success, in the current corporate atmosphere of professional golf, can be measured equally off the course or on. At the highest levels of achievement, the professional golfer is besieged by lucrative offers from every direction - paid appearances abroad, corporate outings, product en-(Continued on Page 68) dorsements, etc. - and as Strange admits, ''we have an opportunity to make an astronomical amount of money off the golf course right now. You have to take advantage of it.'' Tags: championship, Forex, Forex Channels, Forex Media, Forex Multimedia, Forex strategy e-books, GOLDEN SWING, PGA, practice, professionals, straight golf, success

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