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Archive for January, 2009

Jan-31-2009

Weekly Outlook: Drastic Turn in Sterling, ECB, BoE, RBA, NFP, ISM… Featured This Week

There was an 180 degrees turn on the sentiment on Sterling last week as the pound rebounded strongly across the board. There are a couple of reasons behind the strength in Sterling ahead of BoE meeting, including comments from George Soros that he’s not betting against the pound anyway, as…

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Jan-30-2009

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.2764 was limited at 1.3329 last week, below mentioned 1.3385 resistance as expected. Subsequent fall from 1.3329 suggests that whole decline from 1.4719 is resuming. Below 1.2764 will target 1.2329 low (61.8% projection of 1.4360 to 1.2764 from 1.3329 at 1.2343). Though downside might be contained there…

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Jan-30-2009

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY continued to engage in choppy trading above 87.12/13 last week without committing to either direction. As discussed during the week, there are two possible scenarios with 50/50 chances. Fall from 94.61 might either be resumption of down trend or the second leg of consolidation from 87.13. A break below…

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Jan-30-2009

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

Strong than expected rebound from 1.3503 and the break of 1.4469 support turned resistance mixes up the short term outlook. Also, it opens up the possibility that GBP/USD has indeed bottomed out after failing to sustain below 1.3680 key long term support. Nevertheless, in any case, further rise is now…

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Jan-30-2009

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

After some choppy price actions and pullback, USD/CHF is still trading well within inner rising channel and thus, rise from 1.0366 is still progress. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Break of 1.1714 resistance will bring further rally to retest 1.2248/96 resistance zone. On the downside, however, below…

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Jan-30-2009

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s recovery was limited at 0.6729 last week, below 0.6840 resistance as expected and subsequent break of 0.6419 confirms that fall from 0.7267 has resumed. Initial bias will be on the downside this week and current decline from 0.7267 is expected to extend to retest 0.6008 low next. On the…

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Jan-30-2009

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

The USD/CAD was very volatile last week, diving initially to 1.2024, then rebound to 1.2415. Short term outlook remains rather mixed for the moment. Though, reassessing the bigger picture suggests that USD/CAD could be developing into a contracting triangle between 1.1464 and 1.3015. Having said that, more choppy trading could…

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Jan-30-2009

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s fall towards the end of the week indicates that rebound from 112.10 has completed at 119.54, below mentioned 122.15 resistance as expected. Fall from 119.54 is tentatively treated as resumption of decline from 131.03 and should target 112.10 first. Break will confirm this case and bring medium term down…

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Jan-30-2009

US Dollar Outlook Unfazed by Worst Economic Contraction Since 1982

News of the worst US economic contraction in 26 years was not enough to keep the dollar at bay, as the US currency posted gains against the euro and other major counterparts to end the week’s trade. A fresh record-high in US unemployment insurance claims, continued all-time lows in interest…

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Jan-30-2009

US GDP Data Comes in Better Than Expected, Risk Aversion Continues to Dominate

The US economy shriveled to end 2008, with 4th quarter growth contracting 3.8%. Consumer and business cut back on spending, the housing slump continued, exports fell, and prices tumbled amid the deepening recession. The 3.8% contraction is the worst in 26 years and follows a decline of 0.5% in the…

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